Under 2.5 goals variation betting system
Update: Now with two variations!
Variation 1: Under 0.5/1.5/2.5 goals
With online and live betting, the punter has many choices to bet. Also, the live betting gives us choices not available before. After an odds moving study, there were some interesting observations. The odds of under 1.5 goals and under 2.5 goals are getting higher if a goal is scored before the 60th minute of a match. There is a chance to bet for under 1.5 and under 2.5 with higher odds than prematch. So there is an opportunity to get higher profits than betting on the under 2.5 goals market.
The variation is described below:
We start with a prematch bet on under 0.5 goals, which has very high odds, compared to under 2.5 goals odds. If a goal is scored, the under 1.5 goals odds and the under 2.5 goals odds go high, so we can bet for both results, and have a nice profit, because the odds are high (6.0-8.0) for under 1.5 goals and (3.0-4.0) for under 2.5 goals. For the under 2.5 goals we double the stake, so there will be an overall win.
If the match finishes with 0-0, we have a very nice profit (usually X7.0 up to X11.0). In case of a goal the under 1.5 goals odds are high so there is a great chance to get the same result, that covers the previous bet and the double stake of the under 2.5 goals. In case of a second goal the double stake of under 2.5 goals will cover all the expenses and we’ll get a nice profit.
The case of a third goal or more, is out of our scope, because the system is an Under 2.5 goals variation. If half time finishes with 0-0 we have a great chance to win stakeX2 because of the odds movement. We will explain below with the examples.
Veikkausliga: SJK vs KuPS (on 12 July 2014)
The prematch (the screenshot is from the first minute) odds for under 2.5 goals were low (1.6).
With our variation, the punter starts with an under 0.5 goals bet with very nice odds @ 8.4. If the game finishes with 0-0 it will be a great success. The half time score of the match was 0-0. The odds for over 0.5 goals were 1.35.
At half time, there were two options:
1) Let the match go on, with our selection for under 0.5 goals
2) Bet on the over 0.5 goals and win whatever the result.
We will calculate the points needed to stake on the over 0.5 goals bet.
We divide the prematch odds of 8.4 with 1.35 so: 8.4/1.35=6.222 We choose a stake of 6 points.
Total betting points 7, (6 on the over 0.5 goals bet and 1 on the prematch under 0.5 goals):
If the matches finishes with a 0-0 result the win will be 8.4 so there is a profit of 1.4 points (1X8.4). If the matches finishes with a different result the win will be 1.35X6=8.1, a profit of 1.1 points. Both the results are better than the initial 1.6 under 2.5 goals which has a profit of 0.6 points.
Finally the match ended with a 0-0 score, so the risky choice had a great earning x 8.4
Tippeligaen: Sogndal vs viking (same date)
The prematch odds for under 2.5 goals were at 1.87.
With our variation we start with an under 0.5 goals bet with very good odds 11.5.
At half time there was no goal scored, so we can do the same as the previous match.
Over 0.5 goals had odds are 1.28 so:
We will bet with a stake o 8 points on over 0.5 goals with a sure win, whatever the result.
Points bet 9, (8+1).
If the match finishes with a 0-0 result, the profit will be 2.5 points. (11.5 minus 9)
If the match finishes with another result the profit will be 1.24 points (8*1.28=10.24, minus 9)
Finally the match ended with a 0-0 score, so the risky choice (to keep only the first bet) had a great earning x 11.5
Variation 2: Half Time Score 0-0/Correct Score
We make a prematch bet on Half Time Score 0-0. At half time if we have a 0-0, we’re finished with a nice win! In case of another score, be bet all available under 2.5 scores on the correct score market.
Variation 3: Double bet for correct scores. For more details, join our mailing list.
Screenshots were taken from the bookmaker: Directbet.eu
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